In late 2024, Germany faced a significant political upheaval that led to the collapse of its ruling coalition and the announcement of early federal elections. This crisis, rooted in ideological differences and external pressures, has reshaped the nation’s political landscape and offers insights into the challenges modern democracies face.
2. Background: Formation of the Traffic Light Coalition
The 2021 German federal election resulted in the Social Democratic Party (SPD) emerging as the strongest party, securing 25.71% of the vote, translating to 206 out of 736 Bundestag seats. To form a majority government, the SPD entered into a coalition with The Greens (118 seats) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with 91 seats. This alliance, termed the “traffic light coalition” due to the parties’ representative colors—red (SPD), yellow (FDP), and green (The Greens)—ushered Olaf Scholz into the chancellorship in December 2021. citeturn0search16
3. Early Signs of Tension
Budgetary Disagreements
From its inception, the coalition grappled with ideological disparities, particularly concerning economic policies. The SPD and The Greens, both center-left parties, often found themselves at odds with the economically liberal FDP. These differences became pronounced during budget planning sessions, where debates over public spending, environmental initiatives, and social services frequently led to gridlocks.
Constitutional Court Ruling
In November 2023, the Federal Constitutional Court declared portions of the government’s budget policy unconstitutional. The administration had redirected unspent debt, initially allocated for COVID-19 relief, towards climate action budgets. This reallocation resulted in a €60 billion shortfall, further straining the coalition’s cohesion. citeturn0search16
4. State Elections and Rising Populism
Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg Elections
September 2024 marked a turning point with state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg. The traffic light coalition parties suffered significant losses, with the SPD recording its worst performance in Thuringia. The Greens and FDP faced similar setbacks, losing representation in several state parliaments.
Surge of AfD and BSW
The elections witnessed a notable rise in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). This shift indicated growing public dissatisfaction with traditional parties and a move towards more radical alternatives. citeturn0search16
5. The Catalyst: Lindner’s Dismissal
Policy Paper Controversy
On November 1, 2024, Finance Minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner released an 18-page policy paper advocating for a new economic direction. He proposed halting new regulations, implementing tax cuts, and reducing public spending, including on climate initiatives. This stance clashed with the SPD and The Greens, who viewed it as a departure from the coalition agreement. citeturn0search16
Coalition Collapse
The ensuing crisis talks culminated on November 6, 2024, with Chancellor Scholz dismissing Lindner from his cabinet. The FDP’s subsequent move to the opposition led to the collapse of the coalition, leaving the SPD and The Greens to operate as a minority government. citeturn0search16
6. Transition to Minority Government
SPD and The Greens’ Strategy
Operating without a parliamentary majority, the SPD and The Greens faced challenges in advancing their legislative agenda. The opposition, now bolstered by the FDP, capitalized on the government’s weakened position to push for policy changes.
Confidence Vote and Its Aftermath
On December 16, 2024, Chancellor Scholz called for a vote of confidence, which the government subsequently lost. This outcome set the stage for early federal elections, as mandated by the German constitution. citeturn0search16
7. Path to Snap Elections
Presidential Intervention
Following the lost confidence vote, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier engaged in consultations with political leaders to navigate the ensuing crisis. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) met with Steinmeier on November 7 to discuss potential paths forward. citeturn0search16
Election Date Announcement
On December 27, 2024, President Steinmeier formally dissolved the Bundestag and announced that early elections would be held on February 23, 2025. This decision aimed to restore political stability and provide a fresh mandate for governance. citeturn0search16
8. Implications for Germany’s Political Future
Shift in Voter Sentiments
The crisis underscored a significant shift in voter sentiments, with increasing support for populist parties like the AfD and BSW.
